PittsburghV1, Main, Exploration, bibRecord, 000978

Use (and abuse) of expert elicitation in support of decision making for public policy

Identifieur interne : 000978 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000977; suivant : 000979

Use (and abuse) of expert elicitation in support of decision making for public policy

Auteurs : M. Granger Morgan

Source :

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America [ 0027-8424 ] ; 2014.

RBID : PMC:4034232

Descripteurs français

KwdFr :
- Changement climatique, Expertise, Exposition environnementale, Humains, Logiciel, Politique publique, Polluants environnementaux (analyse), Prise de décision, Probabilité, Santé environnementale (), États-Unis d'Amérique.
MESH :
- analyse : Polluants environnementaux.
- Changement climatique, Expertise, Exposition environnementale, Humains, Logiciel, Politique publique, Prise de décision, Probabilité, Santé environnementale, États-Unis d'Amérique.
Wicri :
- geographic : États-Unis.

English descriptors

KwdEn :
- Climate Change, Decision Making, Environmental Exposure, Environmental Health (methods), Environmental Pollutants (analysis), Expert Testimony, Humans, Probability, Public Policy, Software, United States.
MESH :
- chemical , analysis : Environmental Pollutants.
- geographic : United States.
- methods : Environmental Health.
- Climate Change, Decision Making, Environmental Exposure, Expert Testimony, Humans, Probability, Public Policy, Software.

Abstract

The elicitation of scientific and technical judgments from experts, in the form of subjective probability distributions, can be a valuable addition to other forms of evidence in support of public policy decision making. This paper explores when it is sensible to perform such elicitation and how that can best be done. A number of key issues are discussed, including topics on which there are, and are not, experts who have knowledge that provides a basis for making informed predictive judgments; the inadequacy of only using qualitative uncertainty language; the role of cognitive heuristics and of overconfidence; the choice of experts; the development, refinement, and iterative testing of elicitation protocols that are designed to help experts to consider systematically all relevant knowledge when they make their judgments; the treatment of uncertainty about model functional form; diversity of expert opinion; and when it does or does not make sense to combine judgments from different experts. Although it may be tempting to view expert elicitation as a low-cost, low-effort alternative to conducting serious research and analysis, it is neither. Rather, expert elicitation should build on and use the best available research and analysis and be undertaken only when, given those, the state of knowledge will remain insufficient to support timely informed assessment and decision making.

Url:

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4034232

DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1319946111
PubMed: 24821779
PubMed Central: 4034232

Affiliations:

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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p>The elicitation of scientific and technical judgments from experts, in the form of subjective probability distributions, can be a valuable addition to other forms of evidence in support of public policy decision making. This paper explores when it is sensible to perform such elicitation and how that can best be done. A number of key issues are discussed, including topics on which there are, and are not, experts who have knowledge that provides a basis for making informed predictive judgments; the inadequacy of only using qualitative uncertainty language; the role of cognitive heuristics and of overconfidence; the choice of experts; the development, refinement, and iterative testing of elicitation protocols that are designed to help experts to consider systematically all relevant knowledge when they make their judgments; the treatment of uncertainty about model functional form; diversity of expert opinion; and when it does or does not make sense to combine judgments from different experts. Although it may be tempting to view expert elicitation as a low-cost, low-effort alternative to conducting serious research and analysis, it is neither. Rather, expert elicitation should build on and use the best available research and analysis and be undertaken only when, given those, the state of knowledge will remain insufficient to support timely informed assessment and decision making.</p>
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Use (and abuse) of expert elicitation in support of decision making for public policy

Use (and abuse) of expert elicitation in support of decision making for public policy

Source :

Descripteurs français

English descriptors

Abstract

Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)

Le document en format XML

Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)

Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri

Pour générer des pages wiki

	Serveur d'exploration sur Pittsburgh
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